Why Ruto Must Not Pick Raila As His Running Mate In 2027

Political analyst Dr. Michael Ndonye warns that President William Ruto could be making a grave miscalculation if he chooses Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga as his running mate in the 2027 general elections.

Speaking during a live discussion on the TalkChat Podcast, Dr Ndonye says this decision could make Ruto a one-term president.

Dr. Ndonye argued that Ruto’s best bet lies not in putting Raila on the ballot beside him, but in convincing the former Prime Minister to play the role of kingmaker. “Raila is a good kingmaker. He has never failed,” the political analyst observed, noting that Raila has consistently proven his ability to influence electoral outcomes without necessarily ascending to the presidency himself.

Making Raila a running mate, Dr. Ndonye cautioned, would not only be politically risky but also personally humiliating for the veteran opposition leader. “Raila becoming running mate would be like demoting himself,” he explained, adding that such a move would likely spark internal chaos within ODM.

The political analyst further highlighted generational and regional dynamics that could make the alliance risky. He explained that Gen Z, who are already disillusioned with legacy politicians, would view a Ruto-Raila ticket as an attempt to “sustain the power of legacy politicians.”

Dr. Ndonye stressed that Central Kenya voters could not imagine supporting Raila Odinga as either a running mate or as a president, which would erode Ruto’s critical political base.

Even though Gen Z are showing signs of voter mobilization, the political analyst argued that structural barriers make them unlikely to participate fully. As a digital generation, their frustrations with analog systems of registration and voting discourage turnout.

“The systems in place don’t exactly favor them,” he said, explaining that many will simply choose to stay at home rather than engage in processes that seem designed to sideline them.

Looking at the broader political landscape, Dr. Ndonye highlighted that Ruto would likely abandon the hustler narrative that propelled him to power, instead embracing alliances with established dynasties.

He illustrated this with an analogy. “Once you capture the shepherd, you have captured the sheep as they will just still follow where the kingmakers are the shepherds and the sheep are the people from the areas they are from.”

He also likened the situation to “a baby monkey sticking to its mother despite the mother having been killed by a lion, not knowing the mother is dead and it might also die.”

The political analyst recommended that Ruto pick a running mate from Central Kenya, someone neutral and acceptable across factions, rather than risk destabilizing his base with Raila.

To him, Raila’s greatest value to Ruto would be as a kingmaker, not as a deputy. Any attempt to reverse those roles, he insisted, would not only backfire but could also seal Ruto’s fate as a one-term president.

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