• For the ODM, going to government is not just about symbolism; it is about access to power, development leverage, and the ability to shape the national agenda. In an age where political capital is the new economic opportunity, being in perpetual opposition comes with its costs.

As Kenya continues to march towards the 2027 General Election, political realignments are starting to emerge, with none more intriguing than the budding alliance between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the late Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

What has started off as a coming together to address a common cause has now escalated to full-blown coalition talks. But one question remains: what does this mean for 2027?

For President Ruto, the numbers tell a compelling story. Reflecting on his narrow victory in 2022, Ruto has been candid about his aspirations come 2027.

“Last election we won by a margin of two hundred thousand votes. This one we must win by a margin of 2–3 million votes,” Ruto has said.

Not only does he need to win by a wider margin than 2022; he also needs to achieve this by expanding his support base to reach areas considered to be in opposition hands, such as Nyanza, which has been considered an ODM stronghold.

Read More

  1. ODM–UDA Coalition: MP Says It’s ODM Courting UDA
  2. Legislators Spotlight Overcrowding and Values Gap in CBC
  3. Cancer Awareness Proves Transformative as February Nears

The UDA-ODM coalition would greatly ease political resistance in the region, potentially unlocking millions of votes that have traditionally evaded Ruto-aligned politicians. In this regard, the coalition appears to be a deliberate electoral ploy, one that seeks national domination as opposed to regional survival.

However, the above equation is not a one-way street. For ODM, the coalition talk is also about relevance and representation. After several years of running the show from outside the government, there are voices within the party that argue Nyanza cannot afford to be politically excluded for much longer.

This was summed up by strategic advisor Fredrick Okango in an interview on national television on January 27, 2026: “Nyanza people are saying they will not be outside the government again and are seeking any strategic interventions.”

For the ODM, going to government is not just about symbolism; it is about access to power, development leverage, and the ability to shape the national agenda. In an age where political capital is the new economic opportunity, being in perpetual opposition comes with its costs.

But the alliance also comes with its risks. The ODM is also being resisted from within by some of its leaders who are uncomfortable with the blurring of ideology, while Ruto has the challenge of perception that the alliance is transactional rather than transformative.

Essentially, the UDA-ODM alliance is the crossroads of strategy and survival. While the alliance could be the key to a decisive win in 2027 for Ruto, it could also be the ticket to returning to the heart of power for ODM. The importance of the alliance is already clear, but what the future holds for the alliance as the 2027 polls draw nearer remains to be seen.

Stay connected with us on WhatsApp and Facebook for instant updates and breaking news as it happens.