Matiang’i’s 2027 Bid: Shaky Ground and Missed Opportunities

In a recent discussion on the TalkChat Podcast, political analyst Dr. Michael Ndonye has offered a candid assessment of former Cabinet Secretary Dr. Fred Matiang’i’s presidential ambitions, describing his current political positioning as “shaky” and lacking strategic clarity.

Dr. Ndonye argues that while Matiang’i’s return to Kenya was met with high expectations, a series of miscalculations have eroded his momentum. Chief among them, he says, was Matiang’i’s decision to align with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

“Matiang’i made his first mistake by starting to make alliances with Gachagua, a person who was in power when the Gen Z were being harassed in 2024,” said Dr. Ndonye.

He has further criticized Matiang’i’s recent public appearances, citing a lackluster visit to Kisii, his home region, where he failed to galvanize local support, and a television interview that exposed weaknesses in his communication and leadership style.

“Matiang’i doesn’t seem to take quick actions in fixing himself as a presidential contender. He lacks the language, he lacks the structure, and he lacks the vehicle and that puts him in a very weak position against the expectations of the people,” Dr. Ndonye added.

Dr. Ndonye has also questioned Matiang’i’s recent remarks in Minnesota, where he urged Kenyans to “hold him to account” if elected. According to the analyst, the statement echoed Gachagua’s earlier political playbook launching a party abroad and courting the diaspora without first consolidating domestic support.

“Matiang’i has no votes in Kenya, yet he is going to look for votes in the diaspora. Gachagua has votes from the mountain, and that is why he is seeking additional support abroad. Matiang’i, however, is not yet a Kisii kingpin and has also not sought advice from political strategists who could help him rise and become true presidential material,” said Dr. Ndonye.

He has emphasized that Matiang’i must first establish himself as a regional leader before attempting to position himself nationally.

On the question of whether Matiang’i’s promises of integrity, trust, and sound public resource management could address Kenya’s pressing challenges such as high living costs, over-taxation, insecurity, and limited freedom of expression Dr. Ndonye was unequivocal.

“I usually have a problem with Matiang’i because he doesn’t speak to the needs of the people. All these promises are good, but they don’t align with Kenya’s current problems, and this is because Matiang’i doesn’t speak to the people,” he said.

Dr. Ndonye also challenged the prevailing narrative around unemployment, calling it a “scam and a fallacy.” He argued that the informal sector, which employs over 80% of Kenyans, is often overlooked in political discourse.

“The problem of Kenya is not unemployment. It has been a scam and a fallacy that there is unemployment in this country,” he said, noting that most discussions narrowly focus on formal employment.

Reacting to Matiang’i’s emphasis on investment as a solution to unemployment, Dr. Ndonye questioned its relevance to the lived realities of most Kenyans. He described the country as being in an “upper-lower class” bracket, where citizens are still struggling to meet basic needs.

“Matiang’i needs to realize that what matters most to Kenyans right now is the high cost of living. He should clarify the kind of economy he is referring to, because simply talking about investment will not address the everyday struggles people are facing,” said Dr. Ndonye.

While acknowledging Matiang’i’s commendable legacy as a Cabinet Secretary, Dr. Ndonye has cautioned against relying on past performance as a pathway to the presidency.

“Matiang’i’s legacy as a Cabinet Secretary is commendable because he worked well with the power he was given. But he has no experience in convincing people to give him power,” he said.

According to Dr. Ndonye, the real test for Matiang’i will be his ability to connect with voters and articulate a compelling vision grounded in their everyday concerns.