• In a recent live episode on the Talkchat Podcast, political analyst Dr. Michael Ndonye weighed in on Raila Odinga’s remarks during an ODM parliamentary group meeting, where he suggested that the party had not officially ruled out fielding a presidential candidate in 2027. 
  • According to Dr. Ndonye, the comments were not a serious political declaration but a strategic move meant to address internal dissent within ODM.

In a recent live discussion on the Talkchat Podcast, political analyst Dr. Michael Ndonye weighed in on Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga’s remarks during an ODM parliamentary group meeting, where he suggested that the party had not officially ruled out fielding a presidential candidate in 2027.

According to Dr. Ndonye, the comments were not a serious political declaration but a strategic move meant to address internal dissent within ODM.

“Raila was speaking to ODM delegates and not making a national statement,” Dr. Ndonye observed. “What he said was meant to calm the waters within his party, especially for those who are not happy with his support for President Ruto.”

Dr. Ndonye explained that Raila’s position in government makes the idea of fronting a presidential candidate in 2027 highly unlikely. “If they support Ruto up to 2027, it will be too late to front a candidate. What is most likely is that ODM will front a running mate for Ruto,” he said.

The analyst further noted that Raila’s choice of running mate could define ODM’s future. “Whoever Raila chooses to be Ruto’s running mate is the one who is likely to inherit ODM,” he predicted.

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Dr. Ndonye added that the only scenario in which ODM could present a presidential candidate would be if Raila himself returned to the ballot. Even then, he argued that Raila’s candidacy would only serve to consolidate Ruto’s re-election bid.

“If ODM were to front a candidate, it would be Raila. And that would happen only if another strong contender to Ruto emerges. Raila’s entry would simply bring Ruto back into presidency,” he said.

As the discussion concluded, Dr. Ndonye projected a relatively calm political environment in 2027 unless a formidable challenger emerges. However, he predicted that Kenya’s real political shift will come later. “There will be no tensions come 2027 unless there will be strong contestants. The revolution will happen in 2032 when legacy politicians will be going home,” he stated.

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