• Speaking during on the TalkChat Podcast, Dr. Ndonye has observed that Raila’s position in government has blurred the traditional lines between ruling and opposition forces.

Political analyst Dr Michael Ndonye believes that the political dynamics currently unfolding in Kenya leave little room for doubt that the upcoming polls are already rigged in structure and alignment.

Central to his argument is the position of Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader who is also at the helm of the Azimio la Umoja coalition.

Speaking during on the TalkChat Podcast, Dr. Ndonye has observed that Raila’s position in government has blurred the traditional lines between ruling and opposition forces.

“We are not waiting for Azimio to support the government, they are already in government,” he said, stressing that Odinga’s dual influence in both ODM and Azimio technically brings them into the fold of the ruling system.

The analyst went further to note the whispers dominating Kenya’s political space, rumors that Raila could even emerge as President William Ruto’s running mate in 2027. While still speculative, he argued that such a scenario highlights just how fluid and unpredictable coalition politics have become in the country.

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Currently, the political arena is defined by only two major coalitions. Dr. Ndonye explained that the creation of any new front would come at the expense of these existing blocs. “If another one is to be formed, they are going to have to dismantle the existing two,” he pointed out. This, he argued, underscores the structural difficulty of building a credible alternative within such a short time frame before the next polls.

Turning to potential challengers to President Ruto, Dr. Ndonye was frank in his assessment. He argued that figures like Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have yet to display the level of seriousness required to mount a formidable challenge. “They have not shown the seriousness they should have and they don’t have much time left to the next elections,” he said.

Dr. Ndonye has painted a picture of a political landscape already tilted in favor of the incumbency, with opposition forces too entangled in government structures to mount a credible fight. His analysis suggests that Kenya’s 2027 election may already be predetermined by today’s alignments and shifting loyalties.