Nakuru Senate Race: Old Guards, New Forces and the Battle for 2027

Recent Buzz in the Newspapers

The battle for Nakuru’s Senate seat is emerging as one of the county’s defining political contests ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Recent political discussions in local publications, Nakuru County Today, have highlighted a growing interest in the race. Names like Dr Peter Mbae and Wakili Lawrence Karanja are being mentioned as leading figures within the DCP camp, while on the UDA side, Hon. David Gikaria and Noel Aayo Cheruiyot are among those being closely watched.

These conversations reflect a county that is already positioning itself for what promises to be a highly competitive race.

Politrack's December Poll

A clearer picture of the current mood emerged from a December 2025 Politrack poll. In that survey, Dr Peter Mbae of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), a former Government Delivery Services Secretary, is leads with 33.1% (1,108 votes).

Trailing him is Hon. David Gikaria, the Nakuru Town East MP under the UDA banner, with 20.2% (678 votes). Lawyer Wakili Asab Cheruiyot comes in third at 12.6% (422 votes). Wakili Lawrence Karanja, another DCP-aligned figure, follows at 12.1% (406 votes), while former Bahati MP Hon. Kimani Ngunjiri stands at 10.9% (367 votes).

Nakuru's​‍​‌‍​‍‌ Demographics and Political Identity

Nakuru is the swing county in a clear sense. National political winds always blow through here. It lies between Mt Kenya and the Rift Valley and is inhabited by a diverse mix of people: Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Kisii, Luo, and Luhya.

Politics here has always been more about bread-and-butter issues than ethnicity or party lines. What are the youth looking for? Jobs. What matters to the farmer? A marketplace. Which roads work? Do health services reach the villages? Are households from Nakuru Town estates to the farms of Subuki, the tourist shore of Naivasha, and the Bahati-Rongai settlement areas facing a rising cost of living?

To succeed as a Senate candidate in Nakuru, one needs to unite diverse groups and address people's real concerns.

The rise of the DCP

The polls reveal that DCP is making a substantial breakthrough in Nakuru, underscoring the broader shift away from the old order. The remarkable lead of Dr Peter Mbae indicates that the party's appeal for change is attracting many voters tired of the old regime. Another candidate, Lawrence Karanja, who is being discussed, also shows that the party has a strong bench.

UDA's effort to stay put

For UDA, the battle is not just about party loyalty; it will also require other tricks to remain on top. Hon. David Gikaria has an extremely impressive CV in the county: from a member of the town council to mayor, and then to MP. And the party, on top of it, has his big name. Nevertheless, the numbers indicate that the party will struggle to dominate, reinforcing the sense that established strength alone may not be enough.

Impact of middle candidates

Wakili Asab Cheruiyot, Wakili Lawrence Karanja, and Hon. Kimani Ngunjiri together have more than a third of the vote. In this county, where alliances are considered vital, these candidates are not just participants; they are kingmakers whose backing can be decisive in the election’s outcome.

What will be the case in Nakuru?

The contest is developing into a clash between two visions: one grounded in experience, structures, and traditions, and the other bringing new ideas and energy from the generation, making the central political divide increasingly clear.

Nakuru voters are now more willing than ever to look beyond party symbols to candidates’ individual credibility and ability to address daily needs and concerns.

Nakuru’s political scene will show in the coming period whether the existing strong political leaders will maintain their foothold against new forces trying to disrupt the status quo, and that outcome will answer the central question of the race.