• It is almost obvious that Kenyans will send him home in 2027. However, here's the catch: the same Kenyans will actually elect him President once more.
  • He is banking on small pockets of voters across the country. These pockets will be drawn from regions including the Coast, Nyanza, Eastern, Western, Northeastern, Central and Rift Valley.

In 2022, President Ruto emerged at the helm with 50.5% of voters, preferring the ‘hustlers’ camp. The win was not a landslide, as Raila followed closely, garnering 48.8% of the votes.

It ought to be recalled that all predictions painted a very grey image of Dr Ruto’s win. For instance, his rival, Raila Odinga, had the backing of state machinery. Despite it all, Dr Ruto is now President.

In 2027, a similar mood lingers, and a similar outcome is equally imminent.

President Ruto has fallen short of the promises he made to the people of Kenya, and this has occasioned motivated critic against his administration. It is almost obvious that Kenyans will send him home in 2027. However, here's the catch: the same Kenyans will actually elect him President once more.

It has been established that Dr Ruto is a grandmaster in the political chess game, and consequently, his rivals are patzers. Look at the Opposition that forbade his win in 2022; its stronghold is dining with him under the label “Broad-Based Government.”

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It's Checkmate in Ruto’s favour, but again, in chess, the King is never really captured. This is why he has left out a few opposition grips and fuelled it through Gachagua to keep the plan in check.

Indeed, a union of the Kikuyu and Kalenjin is a necessary step towards winning in 2027, but Ruto is not banking on this. He needs the Kalenjin before the polls, but Kikuyu, not so much.

Fact! President Ruto knew that by impeaching Riggy G, Mt Kenya would turn its back on him, but this didn’t stop the process. Ruto only needed the Kikuyu to make him President, that’s all. And, he will win their favor back ahead of the 2027 polls.

Free from the ethnic web, the President has a new map to give him a new win. He is banking on small pockets of voters across the country. These pockets will be drawn from regions including the Coast, Nyanza, Eastern, Western, Northeastern, Central and Rift Valley. This way, he will create a tyranny of small numbers that will accumulate and beat the rhetoric of big tribes alone.

Additionally, the President’s ground plan incorporates reforms to the electoral process, such as the IEBC’s new voter register, mobile polling stations (vehicles to reach remote and excluded communities), and boundary delimitation.

A soft political shift is occurring beneath the Opposition’s feet, and unfamiliarity will be the vehicle that will drive Ruto back to the State House. The Opposition is using an old map to reach new lands, and this will be its downfall. In fact, President Ruto will not win the 2027 elections; it is the Opposition that will lose.