- There are two kinds of elections: the incumbent elections, where the sitting regime seeks re-election, and the succession elections, where the country ushers in a new government after the predecessor completes their term.
- Incumbent elections in 1997, 2007, and 2017 are still remembered as Kenya’s most violent polls. In that regard, succession elections have occasioned a smooth handover of power (2002, 2013, and 2022).
The famed Murphy’s Law states: “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” When aligning Murphy’s words with Kenya’s anticipation of the 2027 general elections, a storm of uncertainty brews.
Firstly, what kind of elections are we headed for?
See, there are two kinds of elections: the incumbent elections, where the sitting regime seeks re-election, and the succession elections, where the country ushers in a new government after the predecessor completes their term. One is a battle for continuity; the other, a gamble on change.
Kenya’s electoral past tells a sobering tale: when the incumbent seeks to cling to power, the ballot often becomes a battlefield. Violence erupts, and the nation teeters on the brink.
Incumbent elections in 1997, 2007, and 2017 are still remembered as Kenya’s most violent polls. In that regard, succession elections have occasioned a smooth handover of power (2002, 2013, and 2022).
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Most of the time, incumbent elections are characterized by widespread dissent against the sitting regime, either from the rival political class or even the citizenry. This is why this type of election is a ticking time bomb.
Why is this the case anyway?
Incumbency is no mere privilege –it’s a fortified stronghold. With constitutional power in hand, the sitting President shapes the very pillars of democracy, from the architecture of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to that of the Supreme Court.
These institutions, vital to every vote cast, often bear the fingerprints of the regime they’re meant to referee. Joseph Stalin, the former Prime Minister of the Soviet Union, once stated: “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” Food for thought.
2027 polls fall in the bracket of incumbent elections. And, if we are to be very specific about Murphy’s Law: “If there are two or more ways to do something, and one of those ways can result in catastrophe, then someone will do it that way.”
So, will that someone be the entities trying to dethrone President William Ruto, or will that someone be the incumbent Ruto in efforts to retain power?
Right now, Kenya teeters on a knife’s edge, politically. But again, Knowledge is Power. By unravelling the layers of electoral power play, we may carve out a bolder, safer path toward the looming elections ahead. A reckoning awaits –two years, and the clock is ticking.
