Why The Orange Democratic Movement Faces Collapse If Sifuna Walks Away

The political ground is shifting once again, and this time the spotlight has fallen squarely on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM’s) Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna. The Nairobi Senator has not hidden his unease following party leader Raila Odinga’s decision to openly support President William Ruto until 2027.

What began as murmurs of discontent has now escalated into a potential crisis, with speculation swirling over whether Sifuna might step down as secretary general or even walk away from the party altogether.

Political analyst Dr Michael Ndonye, speaking on the Talkchat Podcast painted a grim picture of what such a move would mean for ODM.

“If Sifuna resigns or exits ODM, the ripple effects will be far-reaching. His vocal stand suggests he is speaking not only for himself but for other members quietly unhappy with this sudden shift toward Ruto,” he said.

The analyst argued that Sifuna’s dissatisfaction is symptomatic of deeper cracks within ODM. For years, the party has thrived on its identity as the main opposition force, and aligning with the very government it has often criticized unsettles that identity.

“When your most vocal leaders start hinting at walking away, it signals that the dissatisfaction runs deeper than the public sees. ODM risks losing not just Sifuna, but also the support of members who feel betrayed by the new alignment,” the analyst observed.

The consequences of a Sifuna exit could be seismic. ODM, long seen as a strong and united political machine under Raila, would be staring at fragmentation. According to the analyst, the party could be left being considered as a party for the older generation without a voice of the younger people.

The reported formation of the Kenya Moja alliance—an emerging political wing said to draw breakaways from President Ruto, Raila Odinga, and former Deputy President Gachagua—signals an even deeper shake-up of the political order.

“Kenya Moja could destabilize the status quo, further affecting the traditional power bases,” the analyst noted.

He added that the rise of new parties and alliances could be part of a broader strategy to scatter the political field ahead of 2027. “The formation of new outfits ensures that no coalition walks into the next election with an outright head start.

By the time we get to 2027, the playing ground may be deliberately leveled, with every bloc left starting from ground zero,” he explained.

In this shifting terrain, ODM’s struggles over Sifuna’s discontent and Raila’s stance are just one piece of a much larger puzzle—one that could redefine Kenya’s political map before the next general election.